September 9, 2026 · Michael Vodicka · 5 min read
Gold went twelve years without making progress. Then it doubled in three. I think a new long-term cycle began in 2024, and it has years left to run. Here is my gold price forecast and the two ways I own gold for clients.
Gold Is Up 143% Since 2022
Gold is up about 20% over the past twelve months and 143% since the end of 2022. My clients own it, and I have been bullish on it for several years.
I think we are early in a new long-term cycle for gold. That is the heart of this report, and it is the foundation of my gold price forecast.
I am going to cover four things. Why gold holds its value. What drove the last three years. Three reasons I expect it to continue, and where I think the price is headed. And the two ways I own it for clients.
Five Thousand Years of Holding Value
Gold has been money longer than any country, currency or company that exists today. It has outlasted all of them, and it still buys things.
The reason is that nobody can print it. A dollar is a claim on the government. A bond is a claim on a borrower. A stock is a claim on a company’s earnings. Gold is the thing itself.
Since 1971, when the dollar stopped being convertible into gold at $35 an ounce, gold has multiplied about 127 times. Consumer prices multiplied about eight. That gap is the job I hire gold to do.
Why Gold Rallied the Last Three Years
Gold gained 13% in 2023, 27% in 2024 and 65% in 2025 — its biggest year since 1979.
Gold’s Return by Calendar Year
2023
+13%
2024
+27%
2025
+65%
2026 YTD
+3%
Spot gold, calendar-year price return, through September 9, 2026. Source: BullionVault.
Three things drove it.
Central Banks Started Buying
In 2022, Western governments froze roughly $300 billion of Russia’s reserves. Central banks everywhere drew the same conclusion. Reserves held in someone else’s currency can be switched off. Gold in your own vault cannot. They bought more than 1,000 tonnes in 2022, 2023 and 2024, the strongest stretch on record.
Interest Rates Came Down
Gold competes with cash and bonds for a place in a portfolio. As the Fed moved rates down off their peak, that competition eased and money rotated back to the metal.
The Deficits Kept Growing
The national debt crossed $40 trillion last month, and the country is running deficits above $2 trillion a year in a strong economy. Gold has become the way investors express doubt about government finances.
Three Reasons I Expect Gold to Keep Rallying
1. A New Long-Term Cycle Is Under Way
Gold moves in long cycles that run for years, not months. Two big bull markets since 1971, each followed by a long stall. The last stall ran twelve years, and gold gained just 7% across all of them. That ended in 2024.
Gold’s Long-Term Cycles Since 1971
Green is a bull cycle. Red is a bear. Gold is the one we are in.
Peak and trough spot prices. Source: GoldSilver, BullionVault, MetalCharts. Past performance does not predict future results.
The last two bull cycles ran nine and ten years. This one is barely two and a half.
2. The World Is Rebuilding Its Reserves Around Gold
At the end of 2025, gold made up 27% of global central bank reserves against 22% for US Treasuries. Gold is now the world’s largest reserve asset, the first time since 1996. In the World Gold Council’s survey of 76 central banks this year, 89% expected global gold reserves to rise and 74% expected to hold fewer dollars within five years. That is a deliberate shift by the most patient buyers in the market.
3. Supply Cannot Respond
Mine supply has been flat since 2018. The average gap between discovering a deposit and producing the first ounce is 15.7 years, and there were no major discoveries at all in 2023 or 2024. Gold rose 65% in 2025 while global mine supply grew about 1%. Demand can grow. Supply mostly cannot.
“Gold went twelve years without making progress, then doubled in three. That is how gold has always moved — in long cycles, not straight lines.”
— Michael Vodicka, The Vodicka Group
My Gold Price Forecast: $5,000 and $10,000
Anything can happen. But I see a high probability of gold reaching $5,000 an ounce within twelve months and $10,000 within two to three years.
The first is a step of about 13% from here. The second is a much bigger call, and it needs all three forces above to keep running. I think they will.
Two Ways I Invest in Gold: GLD and GDXJ
GLD — SPDR Gold Shares
GLD holds physical gold in a vault and tracks the metal closely. It trades like a stock in any brokerage or IRA — no safe, no dealer premium, no bars to store. It charges 0.40% a year and holds about $149 billion. It pays no dividend. You own it for what it does for the rest of the portfolio.
GDXJ — VanEck Junior Gold Miners
GDXJ owns 117 smaller gold and silver miners. Think of it as gold with a magnifier attached. A miner’s costs are largely fixed, so every extra dollar in the gold price drops toward the bottom line. It cost the industry $1,785 to produce an ounce last quarter, and the margin on each one hit a record $3,076, up 134% in a year.
The magnifier runs both ways. GDXJ’s 52-week high is nearly double its low. It charges 0.52% a year.
Past 12 Months — The Metal vs. The Miners
GLD
+20%
GDXJ
+54%
Total return including distributions, through September 9, 2026. Source: StockAnalysis. Past performance does not predict future results.
Both are peripheral holdings for my clients, not core ones. Sized so a big move up helps and a big move down does not change the plan.
Gold and Bitcoin: My Two Favorite Inflation Trades
Gold and bitcoin are my two favorite inflation trades, and my clients own both. Both are scarce, neither is anyone’s liability, and no central bank can create more of either.
They behave differently, and that is the reason I hold both. Gold is the ballast — central banks hold more than 36,000 tonnes of it, and it steadies a portfolio when markets get scared. Bitcoin is the upside — younger, more volatile, and it moves with risk appetite rather than against it. The two have taken turns leading.
I laid out my full bitcoin outlook last month: Bitcoin: 6 Reasons I See $100,000 by Year-End.
What I Expect From Here
Gold has protected wealth for 5,000 years and it is doing it again now. Very few things earn that kind of track record, and I have a lot of respect for what gold does in a portfolio.
Expect some ups and downs. Gold gave back ground this summer and it will do it again. That is part of the game, and it has never changed what gold is for.
The long run is where I keep my focus. Central banks are still buying, the debt is still growing, and new supply still takes fifteen years to arrive. The last two bull cycles ran the better part of a decade each. I think this one has years left.
Own the right amount. Give it time. Stay invested, stay diversified.
Related Reading from The Vodicka Group:
→ Bitcoin: 6 Reasons I See $100,000 by Year-End
→ AI Spending Hits $2.59 Trillion, and My Two Favorite Ways to Own It
→ Gold Up 65% in 2025 — Here’s the Plan
→ Schedule a Free Portfolio Review
As always, if my outlook changes, my clients and readers will be the first to know. I’ll be back with another update soon — have a great month!
Until next time,
Michael Vodicka
Founder & Lead Advisor · The Vodicka Group
Disclaimer: This report is for entertainment purposes only. Every investor should consult with an investment advisor before making investment decisions. The Vodicka Group, Inc. is not a broker/dealer. We do not receive compensation for mentioning stocks. At various times, the clients, publishers and employees of Vodicka Group, Inc., may buy or sell the securities discussed for purposes of investment or trading.
