August 20, 2026 · Michael Vodicka · 7 min read
Bitcoin just finished the mildest down year in its history, right on the schedule it has kept for a decade. It is already up 25% off the June low, and I think the bottom is in. Here are six reasons I see the bitcoin price reaching $100,000 before 2026 is out.
Where Bitcoin Stands in August 2026
A lot of my clients have asked me about bitcoin this summer. I understand why. Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 last October, then drifted lower through the first half of this year and bottomed near $57,700 in June. That is a real bear market. But bitcoin has been through four of them, and every one has been followed by new highs.
The past eight weeks have looked different. Bitcoin is back to about $72,000, roughly 25% above the June low, including a sharp move higher this week. The selling stopped in early summer, and the price spent two months moving sideways instead of down. Now it is working higher again.
Let me be clear where I stand. Anything can happen. But I see a high probability that bitcoin has bottomed and that the June low holds. Sellers have stepped aside, big institutions are buying again, and this looks a lot like the pattern bitcoin has followed for more than ten years.
In this report I am going to cover three things. Why bitcoin moves in cycles. The six reasons I am bullish from here. And how I use bitcoin in client portfolios.
The Bitcoin Cycle: Three Years Up, One Year Down
Bitcoin does not move in a straight line. It moves in cycles, and the shape of those cycles has been consistent: roughly three years up, then one year down. Then it starts over.
Here are the last twelve calendar years, grouped four at a time.
Bitcoin Annual Returns by Cycle
Cycle One · 2015–2018
Cycle Two · 2019–2022
Cycle Three · 2023–2026 · We Are Here
Calendar-year total returns. 2026 is year-to-date through August 20. Source: Slickcharts.
Two full cycles, same shape. Three green years, then one red year. This cycle bent the pattern a little. 2025 finished flat instead of up big, and the down year arrived early. But the structure held. And one thing has been true every time:
Every down year in bitcoin’s history has been followed by an up year.
2014 fell 30% and 2015 rose 34%. 2018 fell 74% and 2019 rose 92%. 2022 fell 64% and 2023 rose 155%.
Each Bitcoin Bear Market Has Been Gentler
The next chart is the one I like most. Bitcoin’s declines have gotten smaller every cycle. This one is the mildest on record.
Bitcoin Peak-to-Trough Declines by Cycle
Each bear market has done less damage than the one before it.
−94%
−87%
−84%
−77%
−54%
Peak-to-trough decline in each bitcoin down cycle. Source: Mudrex, CoinGecko.
To me that looks like an asset maturing. Each cycle brings in bigger and steadier owners, and each time the selling does less damage. That is real progress.
“The hardest year is usually the one right before it turns. That is when patience pays the most.”
— Michael Vodicka, The Vodicka Group
6 Reasons I’m Bullish on Bitcoin
Two different forces drive bitcoin. It helps to separate them.
The price moves on short-term factors like headlines, sentiment, interest rates and trading flows. Those pushed bitcoin lower this year, even while good things were happening underneath.
The fundamentals move slower. How many people own bitcoin, how much the network gets used, whether banks and advisors offer it, and whether regulators have written the rules. All of those improved in 2026.
That gap is why I am optimistic. Here are the six reasons.
1 The Sellers Have Run Out of Coins
Long-term holders now control roughly 79% of all bitcoin in circulation. That is an all-time high. And only about 218,000 coins that had been untouched for two years or more have moved in 2026. At the same point in 2024, that number was 1.18 million. Most of the people who wanted to sell have already sold.
2 Institutional Money Is Coming Back
Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $517 million on Wednesday, the biggest single day since early May, with BlackRock’s fund accounting for $285 million of it. Total ETF assets are back to roughly $81 billion, up from a July low near $74 billion. ETF buying drove the last move higher. It has turned from a headwind into a tailwind.
3 The Rules Are Finally Getting Written
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed the House and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May. It is now on the Senate calendar awaiting a floor vote. It would put digital commodities under CFTC oversight and give exchanges and custodians a real rulebook. That is the clarity large institutions have been waiting on. It is closer now than it has ever been.
4 The Banks Have Arrived
In January, Bank of America began recommending a 1% to 4% bitcoin allocation. It enabled more than 15,000 Merrill and Private Bank advisors to deliver it. Citi is launching custody this year, Schwab and Morgan Stanley are opening direct trading, and PNC is already live. Roughly 60% of the 25 largest US banks now offer bitcoin services or have announced plans to. Two years ago that number was close to zero.
5 The Network Is Busier Than It Has Ever Been
This is my favorite number in this report. Bitcoin averaged about 652,000 transactions a day in June — up 90% from a year earlier. Daily activity in the first half of 2026 was higher than the full-year figures for both 2024 and 2025, and June 23 was the third-busiest day in bitcoin’s history. Usage went up all year while the price went down.
6 It’s Becoming More Useful
In March, JPMorgan began accepting bitcoin as collateral for loans to institutional clients, and Wells Fargo now offers bitcoin-backed lending. That is a meaningful step. Bitcoin is starting to work the way stocks and real estate do. It is an asset you can borrow against, not just one you hold.
2 Risks I’m Watching
Here are the two things I’m watching most closely.
1 Interest Rates Could Go Up Instead of Down
Bitcoin does best when money is cheap. The Fed is holding at 3.50% to 3.75%. But three voting members dissented in July in favor of a hike, and the 10-year Treasury has climbed to about 4.7%. If rates head higher, that is a headwind for bitcoin, the same way it is for growth stocks and anything else priced on future potential. This is the risk I weigh most heavily.
2 A Pullback in the Broader Stock Market
I do not think this is likely. Stocks look healthy to me. S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow about 25% this year, and valuations have eased as those earnings caught up. But bitcoin now moves almost in lockstep with the market. Its correlation with the S&P 500 reached 0.96 this spring, the highest on record. If stocks did stumble, bitcoin would probably fall further. That is worth knowing, even though I am not expecting it.
Why a $100,000 Bitcoin Price Is Back in Play
I think there is a real chance bitcoin closes above $100,000 this year. That is roughly 39% above where it trades today. The setup into year-end looks stronger than it did a few months ago.
That is a big move. But look at what bitcoin has done coming off past bottoms. Off the December 2018 low of $3,122, it gained more than 60% in four months. After the 2022 bottom, it returned 69% in a single quarter. A move from $72,000 to $100,000 would be an ordinary first leg for bitcoin. And it would still leave the price more than 20% below last October’s high.
The conditions support it. There are four months left in the year, supply is locked up tighter than ever, ETF buying has turned back on, and a regulatory framework is moving through the Senate.
The Setup Into Year-End
A Peripheral Holding, Not a Core One
Here is how I use it. Bitcoin is volatile. It has fallen more than 50% five times in its history. That is simply the nature of the asset. It is not a reason to avoid bitcoin, but it is a reason to be thoughtful about how much you own.
So in the portfolios I manage, bitcoin is a peripheral holding, not a core one. Your core is what the plan rests on. Quality businesses, dividends and income. That is the money that funds your retirement, and it needs to be dependable. Bitcoin sits at the edge of the portfolio in a small, deliberate slice, where a big move up helps and a big move down does not change your life.
The Core
Quality companies, dividends, income. Sized to carry the plan. Built to be dependable, not exciting.
The Periphery
Bitcoin. A small, deliberate slice. Sized so a big decline is an inconvenience, not an emergency.
A peripheral position is not a meaningless one. When an asset can move 40% or 70% coming off a bottom, you do not need a large allocation for it to matter. A small slice of something that doubles still shows up in your returns. A small position can still make a real difference, without putting the plan at risk.
What to Expect From Here
In the short run, expect more volatility. That is not a warning. It is just how bitcoin trades. Sharp drops and sharp rallies are normal, and I would rather my clients expect them than be surprised by them.
The long run is where I keep my focus. Every one of these down years has ended, and the investors who held through them have been rewarded for their patience. The people who have done well in bitcoin were not the ones calling the exact bottom. They owned a sensible amount and stayed put.
The playbook has not changed. Own the right amount. Give it time. Let the cycle do its work. Discipline beats timing.
Related Reading from The Vodicka Group:
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→ S&P 500 Gains 16% in 2025
→ S&P 500 Q1 2026 Update: Through the Storm, Into Clear Skies
→ Schedule a Free Portfolio Review
As always, if my outlook changes, my clients and readers will be the first to know. I’ll be back with another update soon — have a great week!
Until next time,
Michael Vodicka
Founder & Lead Advisor · The Vodicka Group
Disclaimer: This report is for entertainment purposes only. Every investor should consult with an investment advisor before making investment decisions. The Vodicka Group, Inc. is not a broker/dealer. We do not receive compensation for mentioning stocks. At various times, the clients, publishers and employees of Vodicka Group, Inc., may buy or sell the securities discussed for purposes of investment or trading.
