SpaceX Stock After Two Months: A Round Trip That Doesn’t Change the Story

August 15, 2026 · Michael Vodicka · 6 min read

A sharp run, a sharp pullback, and a stock back near where it opened. Here’s where things stand — and why I’m still building.

Two months ago, SpaceX (SPCX) opened for trading at about $150 a share. As I write this, it’s trading near $140.

In between, it has been a ride. SpaceX stock ran to $225.64 on June 16 — a 50% gain in four sessions. Then it gave all of it back and more, bottoming at $104.83 on August 3. From there the stock has climbed roughly a third off the low, and last Monday it closed above its $135 offering price for the first time since mid-July.

Add it up and a stock that opened at $150 is trading around $140. A 50% rally, a 54% drawdown, a recovery — and it lands about 7% below where it started.

Let me be clear about what that is. That is noise — and it is exactly the kind of noise I told you to expect.

$150

Opening price
June 12

$140

Recent price
August 14

+92%

Q2 revenue
growth

SPCX: The First Two Months

Share price, June 12 – August 14, 2026

Day-one open · Jun 12

$150.00

All-time high · Jun 16

$225.64

All-time low · Aug 3

$104.83

Recent · Aug 14

$140.00

A wide range in a short window — and a round trip back toward the opening price. Source: Nasdaq.

Normal, and Expected

In June I wrote that in the short run we should expect volatility, and that it’s normal for a stock this new and this widely watched. That wasn’t a hedge. It’s what newly public companies do, and the bigger the debut, the bigger the swings.

The summer selloff also had specific, knowable causes. SpaceX reported its first quarter as a public company on August 4. Its first lock-up expired two days later, releasing a large block of previously restricted shares into the market. And short interest has run above 30% of the tradable float, which exaggerates moves in both directions.

Every one of those events was on the calendar before the stock ever traded. None of them changed what the company earns, builds, or launches. The big picture is that supply and sentiment moved. The business did not.

“Price tells you what other people are feeling this week. The business tells you what you actually own.”

Four Reasons I’m Bullish on SpaceX Stock From Here

The growth is real, and it’s accelerating

First quarterly report as a public company: revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year ago and roughly a billion dollars ahead of what Wall Street expected. Losses narrowed to $541 million from about $1.0 billion. Management said the company is on pace for a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year end. Companies growing that fast, at that size, are rare.

Starlink is already a profitable business

This is the part I keep coming back to. Starlink revenue grew 66% to $4.3 billion in the quarter and threw off $1.66 billion in operating profit. Subscribers doubled in a year to 12 million. Revenue per subscriber fell 22%, but that’s a choice — cheaper international plans buying market share in places with no real alternative. A cash-generating subscription business sits underneath the moonshots.

Starship is turning into a working rocket

This is the part of the story that gets treated as science fiction, and it’s getting closer to routine. The V3 vehicle first flew in May. Flight 14 is expected in the coming weeks and is set to be the first orbital attempt for V3, carrying next-generation Starlink satellites and attempting a tower catch of the upper stage. Management is targeting a cadence measured in flights per week, then per day. If Starship works at scale, the cost of putting anything in orbit falls dramatically — and SpaceX owns that advantage outright.

The AI business is the fastest-growing piece

Almost nobody was talking about this a year ago. Compute and AI services revenue grew 247% to $2.56 billion in the quarter — already a third of company revenue. Capacity is set to expand from 1.4 to 2 gigawatts by year end, with far more planned beyond that. It is expensive to build, which I’ll come back to. But it is a second enormous market the company is attacking with the same infrastructure advantage, and it is scaling faster than anything else it owns.

Where the Revenue Comes From

Second quarter 2026, with year-over-year growth

Total revenue

$7.81B +92%

Starlink connectivity

$4.30B +66%

Compute & AI services

$2.56B +247%

Starlink operating profit

$1.66B

Bars scaled to total revenue. Source: company second-quarter results, August 4, 2026.

Two Reasons to Stay Careful

The spending is enormous

Capital spending came in at $18.4 billion for the quarter against roughly $13 billion expected, most of it going into compute buildout. That is why a stock can beat on revenue and still fall. Free cash flow is negative, and a company spending like this will likely need to raise capital again, which can dilute existing shareholders. This is the single number I’m watching most closely.

The valuation leaves little room for error

Even after the pullback, SpaceX shares trade at a large multiple of this year’s expected sales — far above almost any company its size. At that price, execution has to stay near-perfect. Meanwhile Amazon’s Kuiper, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are all pushing into launch and satellite internet. SpaceX’s lead is wide today. It is not permanent, and the market is charging full price for it.

What I’m Doing for Clients

In June I bought roughly half of each interested client’s target position and deliberately held the rest in reserve. I said at the time the reserve did two things: it gave us dry powder to add on a pullback, and it kept us patient.

The pullback came, and I used some of that reserve to add during the summer weakness. I still have room, and I’m still looking to add. I’m not trying to call a bottom — nobody does that reliably. I’m building full positions in measured steps, at prices I think are reasonable for a company growing this fast.

What to Expect

More of the same. Expect big swings around Starship flights, quarterly reports, and the next lock-up window. A stock this new, this widely owned and this heavily shorted is going to move.

But stay focused on the fundamentals. Two months in, revenue nearly doubled, losses shrank, Starlink turned a real profit, and the next rocket is on the pad. The share price went on a round trip and landed near where it opened. That is not a warning sign. That is a new stock finding its footing while the business does its job.

Nothing has happened that we didn’t discuss in advance. The plan is intact, the process is working, and I’m continuing to build long-term positions for clients who want to own this company.

As always, if my outlook changes, my clients and readers will be the first to know. I’ll be back with another update soon — have a great week!

Until next time,