UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) offers a compelling investment opportunity right now. That’s why I have been buying this stock for my clients and myself. In this report I am going to share more details on why the UNH share price saw a record fall in 2025 and why I believe this has created a compelling investment opportunity.
UNH is the largest health insurance provider in the United States. The company provided health insurance to more than 50 million customers in 2024. In 2025 UNH is on pace to book almost a half trillion U.S. dollars in revenue – about $500 billion. Despite its industry leadership and impressive financial profile, shares of UNH fell more than 60% from the 52-week high in early 2025. That sharp decline was driven by two key factors.
Two Factors that Caused UNH Share Price to Drop
DOJ investigation into billing practices: The DOJ has been conducting an investigation into potentially fraudulent billing practices.
Profit warning on rising costs: UNH issued a profit warning in early 2025, dropping its full-year earnings target from $30-$29.50 per share to $26.50-$26.00.
Neither of these events are pretty. Wall Street hates profit warnings and the DOJ investigation raises serious questions on business ethics. Not surprisingly, the UNH share price took a big hit – falling almost 60% from the 52-week high. Take a look at the 5-year chart below – shares fell from over $600 to below $250.
Now that we understand the back story – let’s take a look forward. I believe the drop in shares is an over reaction and that this over reaction has created a compelling investment opportunity. That’s why I am expecting the UNH share price to fully recover all losses in the next 12-24 months.
Four Reasons I am Bullish on UNH Share Price
I expect the DOJ to take it easy on UNH: Even if UNH is guilty of questionable billing practices, I expect the DOJ to go easy on this company – for example – a small fine and a slap on the wrist. Here’s why. The U.S. health insurance industry is already under tremendous pressure with rising costs. The DOJ and federal government has a strong incentive to keep UNH strong and healthy so that it can continue to provide health insurance to tens of millions of customers.
Strong revenue and earnings: I mentioned above that UNH dropped its 2025 full-year earnings target by about 10%. That’s not great news for shareholders but a potential 10% decline in earnings generally shouldn’t cause shares to fall 60%.
The stock looks undervalued: UNH’s average P/E ratio in the last five years is 23. Today it is 15, implying that the company’s share price is undervalued relative to underlying fundamentals.
Dividend growth and strength: Despite the decline in shares, UNH didn’t just continue to pay its dividend in 2025, it logged its 16th consecutive year of dividend growth. This dividend payment and growth demonstrates that the company remains strong financially despite its struggles in 2025.
The Big Picture on UnitedHealth Group
UnitedHealth Group is a clear industry leader, its one of the largest health insurance providers in the U.S. Its share price fell sharply in 2025 after accusations of fraudulent billing practices and lowering its full-year earnings target. I believe the 60% drop in shares is an overreaction and I expect UNH shares to fully recover those losses in the next 12-24 months. That’s why I believe the decline in shares has created a compelling investment opportunity.
UNH is set to report earnings on October 28. I am expecting to see good news and I expect that to give Wall Street more confidence in UNH and I expect that to give shares another boost higher.
Disclaimer: This report is for entertainment purposes only. Every investor should consult with an investment advisor before making investment decisions. The Vodicka Group, Inc. is not a broker/dealer. We do not receive compensation for mentioning stocks. At various times, the clients, publishers and employees of Vodicka Group, Inc., may buy or sell the securities discussed for purposes of investment or trading.
