May 19, 2026 · Michael Vodicka · 5 min read
The SpaceX IPO is just three weeks away — and at a $1.75 trillion valuation, it would be the largest public listing in history. Here’s a clear-eyed breakdown of the bullish case, the real risks, and who this stock actually makes sense for.
The SpaceX IPO 2026: What a Moment for Capital Markets
The biggest IPO in history is just around the corner. SpaceX — Elon Musk’s space exploration and satellite internet company — is targeting a Nasdaq debut on June 12, 2026 under the ticker SPCX. The deal could raise up to $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, more than three times the size of Saudi Aramco’s 2019 offering — the previous record holder. For most retail investors, the SpaceX IPO 2026 represents the first real opportunity to own a piece of one of the most coveted private companies in the world.
I’ve had a lot of clients ask me what to make of it — so let me share my view: I’m bullish on the long-term thesis, cautious on the IPO entry point, and clear-eyed about who this stock actually makes sense for.
3 Reasons to Be Bullish on SpaceX
The big picture on SpaceX is genuinely impressive. This isn’t a venture-stage company with a pitch deck. It’s a real business with real cash flow and a real moat.
1Starlink Is a Real, Profitable Business
Starlink — the satellite internet business — is no longer a side project. It’s a profitable, fast-growing utility with about 10 million subscribers in 150+ countries. In 2025, Starlink generated roughly $11.4 billion in revenue at a 63% EBITDA margin and produced the only positive cash flow inside SpaceX. That margin profile looks more like a mature software company than a satellite startup. With aviation, maritime, and direct-to-cell segments just ramping, the runway from here is long.
2Reusable Launch Is a Monopoly
SpaceX flew 165 Falcon 9 missions in 2025 and accounted for roughly 52% of all global orbital launches. Reusable boosters have cut launch costs by as much as 65%, and the company has effectively become the default logistics provider for NASA, the Department of Defense, and commercial customers. NASA’s Commercial Crew contract alone is locked in at $4.93 billion through 2030. There is no competitor at meaningful scale — not Blue Origin, not the European launchers, not the Chinese programs.
3The Optionality Is Real
Starship, direct-to-cell phone service, the xAI integration (Musk merged xAI into SpaceX in February in a $250 billion deal), defense contracts through Starshield, and potential future markets like orbital data centers — none of these is fully reflected in current revenue. They’re real options on much larger end markets. Some won’t pan out. But it only takes one or two to dramatically expand SpaceX’s addressable opportunity over the next decade.
“Great companies aren’t always great IPO entry points. The investors who win with SpaceX over the long run will be the ones who understand what they’re buying and size it accordingly — not the ones chasing the first-day pop.”
— Michael Vodicka, Vodicka Group
2 Reasons to Be Cautious on the SpaceX IPO
So why am I telling clients to think carefully about this IPO before backing up the truck? Two big reasons.
1. The Valuation Is Stretched
At $1.75 trillion on roughly $16 billion of 2025 revenue, SpaceX would IPO at about 109 times sales. For context, mega-cap tech companies typically trade between 5 and 15 times sales. Even at the projected 2026 revenue of $22 billion, the multiple is still in the 80s. Wall Street is essentially pricing in flawless execution across Starlink expansion, Starship development, defense growth, and AI integration over the next 5 to 10 years. There is very little margin for error.
2. Volatility Is Almost Guaranteed
This will be a heavily-traded, headline-driven, retail-dominated stock with a small public float, a dual-class share structure that concentrates voting control with Musk, and a 180-day lockup that expires in late December — which historically creates selling pressure as insiders get their first chance to exit. Add in the “Musk Effect,” where Elon’s posts and decisions move the stock in real time, and you have one of the most volatile setups of any large-cap stock in the market.
Who the SpaceX IPO Is Actually For
Let me be clear about who I think the SpaceX IPO 2026 makes sense for: growth-oriented investors with a long time horizon and the stomach for volatility. If you can hold a position through a 30% drawdown without panicking, understand that the first 12 months of a stock like this will be wild, and are willing to size the position appropriately — SpaceX could be a meaningful allocation in the growth sleeve of your portfolio.
It is not a replacement for the S&P 500, and it’s not a core holding for most investors. It’s a satellite position for a portfolio that already has a strong foundation.
What to Expect Moving Forward
I’ll be watching the S-1 filing closely once it goes public — expected between May 20 and May 22 — and I’ll share a more detailed take once we see the actual financials, dilution terms, and pricing range. For clients who want exposure, buying on the IPO or shortly after is fine with me. Just go in with eyes open on the volatility — this won’t be a smooth ride for the first 12 months.
Discipline beats timing. That’s been the playbook for every great IPO of the last 25 years, and there’s no reason to think the SpaceX IPO is different.
Related Reading from Vodicka Group:
→ S&P 500 April 2026 Update: A Blockbuster Month
→ S&P 500 Q1 2026 Update: Through the Storm, Into Clear Skies
→ Backdoor Roth IRA Explained: How It Works in 2026
→ Schedule a Free Portfolio Review
As always, if my outlook changes, my clients and readers will be the first to know. I’ll be back with another update soon — have a great week!
Until next time,
Michael Vodicka
Founder & Lead Advisor · Vodicka Group
Disclaimer: This report is for entertainment purposes only. Every investor should consult with an investment advisor before making investment decisions. Vodicka Group, Inc. is not a broker/dealer. We do not receive compensation for mentioning stocks. At various times, the clients, publishers and employees of Vodicka Group, Inc., may buy or sell the securities discussed for purposes of investment or trading.
